What Is Labor Market Outlook? (BLS Wage Benchmarks)

A labor market outlook is a forecast of how employment in an occupation may change over time. BLS wage benchmarks show what workers in that occupation earned, not what you will earn after graduation. Use both measures, plus annual openings, local data, and training requirements, to compare career paths. Neither strong growth nor high pay guarantees a job.

Choosing a major or training program can feel like making a large investment without knowing what it will lead to. BLS data can help you compare career paths, but it cannot tell you exactly what you will earn or whether a specific program is worth its cost. The key is to connect occupation forecasts and wage estimates to your location, preparation, and budget.

I use a simple distinction: an outlook describes a possible change in employment; a wage benchmark describes pay among workers at a specific time. A useful decision uses both, checks how the figures were made, and asks what education or experience employers expect.

What “labor market outlook” means in BLS data

A labor market outlook is a forecast about employment in an occupation, not a promise that employers will hire a certain number of graduates. The BLS Employment Projections program estimates how jobs may change over a period. The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) presents projections alongside occupation details and average annual openings.

For the 2024–34 period, compare the projected employment change with the estimated average annual openings. These are related, but they answer different questions. Projected change estimates how the number of jobs may rise or fall. Annual openings also account for workers who leave an occupation, such as by retiring or changing careers.

That difference matters. An occupation may have modest projected growth but still have openings because employers need to replace workers. Another may grow quickly but have fewer openings in absolute terms because the occupation is small. Neither statistic measures how many openings will be available to you in a particular town, or how many applicants will compete for them.

Treat the projection as a planning signal, not a guarantee. It describes expected employment patterns across an occupation, not the hiring plans of one company or the value of one college program.

How to read BLS wage benchmarks

A BLS wage benchmark is a statistical estimate of pay for workers in an occupation. For comparison, use the May 2024 OEWS median annual wage, and review the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles when available. The median is the midpoint: half of workers earned less and half earned more.

The median is not an entry-level salary or a prediction for a new graduate. It includes workers with different levels of experience, in different jobs and locations. A new worker may earn less than the median; a worker with more experience may earn more. The 10th and 90th percentiles help show the range, but they do not guarantee a floor or ceiling for any individual.

OEWS means Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics. It estimates wages for employees in covered wage-and-salary jobs. It does not represent every self-employed worker, and the published wage figure may not include benefits. It also does not adjust for your personal costs, such as housing or transportation.

Compare like with like. Check that the wage year, occupation, and geography match across the figures you use. A national median and a state median can differ, and state figures may conceal differences between cities and rural areas. A high wage in one region may not stretch as far after local costs.

Admissions and program planning: match training to occupations

A program choice is the link between your education and the work you hope to do. Before applying or enrolling, use the OOH occupation profile to check typical education, experience, and training expectations. Then compare those expectations with the program’s actual courses, credentials, and completion requirements.

Start by listing two or three occupations you may want to pursue, rather than choosing a degree based on one wage number. For each, note the education and training described by the OOH. Some careers may require a degree; others may call for a credential, supervised experience, or a license. Requirements can differ by occupation and state, so confirm them with the relevant licensing body or employer.

Next, check how the program prepares students for those requirements. Ask an adviser or program office:

• Which required courses or prerequisites must I complete?
• Does the program prepare students for a required exam, license, or certification?
• Are internships, clinical placements, labs, or other practical experiences part of the curriculum?
• What is the expected time to completion, including prerequisites?
• Where can I find program-level completion or employment outcome data, if available?

Verify the institution’s accreditation with the appropriate recognized accreditor. Accreditation is a quality review of an institution or program; it is not a promise of a job, license, or specific salary. Check the status that applies to the program you plan to attend, especially if a profession or future school requires a particular form of accreditation.

Compare occupations, programs, and local evidence

A sound comparison uses more than one measure. I would put outlook, openings, wages, entry requirements, and local evidence side by side, then ask which option fits the time and cost you can manage. This prevents one appealing statistic from dominating a decision that depends on several practical factors.

Use current job postings as a separate check. Postings can show what employers in your intended area ask for now, such as a degree, experience, or a specific credential. They are snapshots, not a complete count of jobs, and one posting does not define an entire occupation. Look for patterns across several employers.

Two hypothetical comparisons

Scenario A: A growing occupation with modest pay. A student sees a positive 2024–34 projection and many annual openings, then checks the local wage percentiles and finds that starting offers may be lower than the national median. The student compares program cost and likely completion time with local entry-level postings before deciding.

Scenario B: A higher median wage with fewer openings. Another student is drawn to a higher national median. The student checks annual openings, local estimates, and required preparation, then finds that the path may involve extra training and a narrower local job market. The median alone would have left out those trade-offs.

These are examples of how to reason, not claims about specific occupations. The lesson is to compare the same measures for each option and test them against local evidence.

Estimate cost and career fit without treating pay as a promise

A degree’s return depends on more than the occupation’s median wage. Consider tuition and fees, books and supplies, living costs, financial aid, time to completion, and any extra training needed after graduation. A longer path may delay full-time earnings; financial aid can reduce the amount you pay, but loan terms still matter.

A practical way to compare options is to write down the costs you expect and the evidence you have. Do not subtract tuition from the occupational median and call the result a guaranteed return. The median includes workers across experience levels, and your first offer may be different. Compare entry-level postings in your region and review wage percentiles before estimating what you might earn.

If program outcome data are available, ask how the school defines “employed,” which graduates are included, and when the data were collected. A program’s reported outcome may not use the same occupation or time period as BLS figures. Make sure you understand what is being measured before using it to compare schools.

A step-by-step method for using BLS data

A repeatable process makes it easier to compare career paths and revisit your choice as new information appears. Use the same steps for each occupation, and note the year and geography beside every figure. This record helps prevent accidental comparisons between different measures or data periods.

1. Define your decision. List candidate occupations, preferred locations, acceptable training time, and your pay needs.
2. Review the OOH profile. Note the 2024–34 employment outlook, average annual openings, and education, experience, and training expectations.
3. Check wage data. Use May 2024 OEWS estimates and inspect the 10th, median, and 90th percentiles where available.
4. Match the geography. Compare national data with state and metropolitan-area estimates if you know where you plan to work.
5. Map training to the occupation. Check prerequisites, licensing or certification rules, internships, and practical experience.
6. Evaluate the program. Confirm accreditation, curriculum, completion requirements, total cost, aid, and outcome data where available.
7. Recheck before committing. BLS data and employer needs can change. Before enrolling or graduating, review current BLS information and local job postings.

The purpose is not to find a perfect forecast. It is to make a better-informed choice and know which assumptions still need checking.

Key takeaway

BLS labor market outlook and wage benchmarks are useful for comparing occupations, but they answer different questions. Projections and annual openings describe expected employment patterns; OEWS percentiles describe estimated wages among covered workers. Check education requirements, local data, program quality, costs, and current job postings before committing to a path.

Frequently asked questions

What is a labor market outlook?

A labor market outlook is a forecast of how employment in an occupation may change over a set period. The BLS 2024–34 projections describe expected changes across occupations. They do not promise that a particular person will find work or that a specific employer will hire.

What does the BLS median wage mean?

The BLS median wage is the middle point in an estimated wage distribution: half of workers earned less and half earned more. It covers workers at different experience levels and is not a guaranteed starting salary. Check the wage year, occupation, and location when comparing medians.

What is the difference between job growth and annual openings?

Projected job growth estimates how the number of jobs in an occupation may change. Average annual openings also include opportunities tied to workers leaving the occupation. An occupation can have openings even when its projected growth is modest, but the estimate does not guarantee a local vacancy.

Does a high BLS median wage mean I will earn that amount?

No. The median reflects wages across workers with varied experience and locations, not the expected pay of a new graduate. Compare local entry-level job postings and wage percentiles, and consider required training, program cost, and time to completion before estimating your likely earnings.

Why should I compare state or metro wages with national wages?

National figures may not reflect pay where you plan to work. State and metropolitan-area OEWS estimates can show geographic differences, although local costs and job competition also matter. Use matching occupation and data-year figures, and do not assume that a national median applies to every city.

What does the 10th or 90th wage percentile tell me?

The 10th percentile shows a wage near the lower end of the reported distribution; the 90th shows one near the upper end. These figures help describe the spread of wages. They are not guaranteed minimum or maximum pay for an individual worker.

Do BLS wage estimates include self-employed workers and benefits?

OEWS wage estimates cover employees in specified wage-and-salary jobs and may not represent all self-employed workers. The published wage figures may not include benefits. Check BLS notes for the occupation and data table, and avoid treating the estimate as total compensation.

How can I use BLS data to choose a degree?

Use the OOH to identify the occupation’s education, experience, and training expectations, then compare those with program courses, credentials, internships, cost, and completion time. Check accreditation and local employer requirements as well. BLS data can inform the choice, but cannot guarantee a degree’s financial return.

How often should I recheck the labor market outlook?

Recheck BLS data before making a major enrollment or career decision, and again as you approach graduation or credential completion. Projections are forecasts, and employer needs can change. Review the data year shown in each table and compare it with current local job postings.

Are BLS projections a guarantee that jobs will be available?

No. BLS projections are estimates of future employment patterns, not promises of hiring, job security, or personal earnings. Actual opportunities depend on factors such as location, qualifications, experience, and employer needs. Use the outlook with annual openings, wage data, and local evidence.

(This article was written by one of our staff writers, Nathan Sterling. Visit our Meet the Team page.)